SAN DIEGO – Medtrade exhibitor Resmed published a study last week in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine projecting a significant rise in obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) in the United States over the next three decades due to a variety of factors—including an aging population and increasing body mass index (BMI).

The study estimates that by 2050, OSA will affect nearly 77 million U.S. adults, representing a relative¹ increase of nearly 35% from 2020 and impacting 46% of adults aged 30-69. The study is the first of its kind to estimate OSA prevalence in the United States between 2020 and 2050. It used an open-cohort dynamic population model factoring in changes in age, sex, and BMI.

OSA is a chronic sleep-related breathing disorder where breathing repeatedly stops during sleep, affecting nearly 1 billion people globally². It is linked to serious health consequences, including hypertension, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and even stroke³. Yet, more than 80% of cases go undiagnosed and untreated⁴. The new research highlights an urgent need for earlier diagnosis of OSA, preventative strategies, and healthcare resource allocation to address this major public health problem. 

“This study reaffirms that the number of people with OSA is expected to dramatically increase,” said Carlos Nunez, MD, Chief Medical Officer at Resmed and Study Co-Author. “As an industry, we must expand screening, increase awareness of symptoms among providers and consumers, and make it easier for people to get tested and treated, including at home. If we don’t act, we risk missing tens of millions of people who need access to care.”

Led by researchers at Resmed through their medXcloud academic-industry collaborative, involving global academic thought leaders in the fields of sleep and respiratory medicine, the study also found:

• A 65% relative increase in OSA prevalence among women, reaching 30.4 million by 2050: The sharp rise, attributed to factors like an aging population and underdiagnosis⁵, underscores the need for greater awareness of how OSA presents differently in women to support earlier screening, diagnosis, and targeted treatment.
• A 19% relative increase in OSA prevalence among men, reaching 45.9 million cases by 2050:This continued rise reflects ongoing risk in aging male populations, highlighting the need for scalable diagnostic pathways and long-term treatment strategies.
• The impact of GLP-1 therapies on future OSA prevalence is anticipated to be limited, with reductions estimated at under 5%:Even with advances in emerging drugs, such as GLP-1s, the overall number of people affected by OSA is expected to continue growing. GLP-1 use is estimated to reduce relative OSA prevalence by only 4% by 2050, from nearly 77 million cases to nearly 74 million cases.